Open Source and Open Innovation with whurley

Phone Warz: Revenge Of The Palm?

Does Palm + Open Source = iPhone Killer?

The New Year’s still in diapers, and already several technology battles are heating up–the most interesting in the smart phone arena. Computing is clearly going mobile, and he who owns the smart phone software market may own the next decade. Think Microsoft dominating the office application space. Ever since I put together iPhoneDevCamp with Raven Zachary and Chris Messina back in ‘06, I’ve been hawking the other manufacturers looking for a legit challenge to the iPhone’s throne.

It looks like 2009 could be the year, but ousting the cult leader won’t be easy. The iPhone has now outsold the RAZR. Remember 2003? Motorola? The $800 (initially) phone dominated with smashing design, limited features, and an arguably horrible software interface. It still took years before a strong enough phone took its place. Now it’s Apple’s turn at the top, and they’re alone from their vantage point. It’s going to take a tremendous campaign based on solid hardware and a strong, thorough software feature set. Personally, I don’t think any coup has a chance without an open source software platform supported by a robust developer community. So who’s gonna threaten ol’ Granny Smith?

The smart phone with the best operating system. Hardware manufacturers come and go, but the company that controls the smart phone OS market is going to control the market, period. We’ve got RIM (Research in Motion), Google, Symbian, and now Palm–looking more interesting with its new Linux-based WebOS. Chances are the Blackberry team is never going to share more of its OS than they already have. I’d love to be wrong, but I ain’t. RIM’s history of intellectual property management makes it highly unlikely they’ll do anything significant this year. Google has made tremendous progress with its Android project. Symbian, recently acquired by Nokia, is about to go fully open source to compete head-to-head with Android. But the most interesting, in my opinion, is the new Palm Pre and its WebOS. Though Palm has made no public statements about its intentions for WebOS yet, it’s got an amazing amount of potential.

So Android, Symbian, and WebOS–a three-horse race for iPhone’s crown. The easiest to size up is Android. I love the software stack, and it’s already garnered wonderful support from the community. Android’s also got the first-to-market advantage, though that’s not a reason to discount Symbian or the new Symbian foundation. As of June 30, 2008, 226 million cumulative Symbian-equipped units had shipped. More impressive are the 250 different models released with the OS since its creation. Add those to the 9834 Symbian partners, and I certainly wouldn’t count them out. Google’s in for a brawl.

Still, if I were a bettin’ man, I’d put my money on WebOS. That’s if Palm makes it open source. You may not be aware, but WebOS integrates Linux with the iPhone’s WebKit. What a one-two punch: all the slick benefits of the WebKit plus Linux equals near-limitless potential. Palm has already hired several developers away from Apple, and is positioning the Pre for a serious title run. Android and Symbian are certain contenders, but known quantities. WebOS could be our dark horse.

To sum up: Google has an open-source platform and a large developer base; Nokia has a soon-to-be-open-source platform and a large install base (not necessarily an asset, given the difficulty of pushing a new OS to existing phones); and Palm has a clean OS, a memorable (though tainted) brand, and a large fan base. Wouldn’t it be something if Palm open sourced WebOS, earned some community love, and came back from the dead with the Holy Grail? I’m sure Palm’s considering it, and if they do 2009’s gonna be a humdinger for smart phones.

Watch the developers, they’re the key. The largest, most active, developer network is going to win, because consumers want applications. I was discussing this whole scenario with @Giovanni and @DanCrumb this weekend, and we had quite an amusing round of “what-ifs.” We had so much fun bumpin’ our gums, we decided to up the ante. Today @Giovanni, @DanCrumb and I (@whurley) are launching preDevCamp 2009. The event will be held in around 60 cities around the world exactly one week after the U.S. release of the Palm Pre. Since the phone is Linux+WebKit, development should be easy for us to share the love. Tell your friends. Invite your neighbors. We’ve got satellite events lined up in over 30 cities around the world. If you want to enlist, visit the website and tell us your city. If there’s not a leader in that city, then you just got promoted.